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Home » About Us » Columnists » Biographies »

World events put inflation fears to rest

By Lou Barnes, Friday, April 19, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=16622788" target="_blank">Inflation fears</a> image via Shutterstock.

Since the Great Recession began in 2007, we've been barraged by a steady stream of commentary from every perspective arguing about what is happening to us, and debating risks and remedies, in a situation that's without precedent.

Perhaps the dominant thread has been from those insisting that inflation will be the inevitable consequence of central banks' efforts to save the global economy from implosion.  more...

Our economy is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket

By Lou Barnes, Friday, April 12, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=116940673" target="_blank">American flag</a> image via Shutterstock.

More soggy data have confirmed the poor jobs report for March, and so we've held on to the interest rate improvement set last week. However, some good news is on the way -- legitimate good news, the kind that tends to hold rates down.

The National Federation of Independent Business' survey of small business fell in March, breaking a three-month uptrend. But overall it was the same, going-nowhere pattern since 2009.  more...

Housing market and global uncertainty help U.S. economy -- for now

By Lou Barnes, Friday, April 5, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=86464969">Scared stock trader</a> image via Shutterstock.

Well, well, well. All week long, anxiety on several fronts had suppressed optimism and rates, but news of faltering job creation in March has produced a case of the quaking bejabbers.

Four weeks ago the 10-year T-note traded above 2.05 percent, presumably headed moonward, today 1.69 percent. The mortgage move has been smaller, but fears of 4 percent-plus have been replaced by hopes for 3.5 percent.  more...

Time to take the measure of the recovery

By Lou Barnes, Friday, March 29, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=97893065" target="_blank">Measuring tools</a> image via Shutterstock.

Trading everywhere has ceased for Passover, Good Friday, and Easter, but next week brings a flood of brand-new information for March, capped on Friday by employment data. Thus a good time to reflect.

I do not recall a moment in which so many economic elements at the same time have been at points of inflection. In the old days (five years ago) nothing much mattered except U.S. data. In global markets the world is more important than the U.S.  more...

Europe's situation is precarious and deteriorating

By Lou Barnes, Friday, March 22, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=97135283" target="_blank">Bank vault</a> image via Shutterstock.

Long-term rates, the 10-year T-note and mortgages are approaching their 2013 lows because of Cyprus -- which could disappear in a volcanic explosion (as did nearby Thera) and do no particular harm to the global economy.  more...

Time to reload for the next crisis

By Lou Barnes, Friday, March 15, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=45174001" target="_blank">Cannons</a> image via Shutterstock.

Long-term interest rates stayed under control this week, but barely. The economy is changing for the better: this may be another false recovery, but as they have gone, this one is by far the most broad and sound since the show stopped in 2008.

Last week I questioned the report of a quarter-million-jobs gained in February. Should not have, as confirming data have arrived.  more...

No heat, let alone fire, in jobs report

By Lou Barnes, Friday, March 8, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=46242526" target="_blank">Smoldering</a> image via Shutterstock.

One of many roads converging on perdition: quarreling with economic reports.

Many people do, usually for political-conspiracy reasons, but professionals are trained not to. You're told from day one: "Don't fight the tape." Don't fight the news, or the market.  more...

If Fed's just buying time, what's Plan B?

By Lou Barnes, Friday, March 1, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=85554970" target="_blank">Kick the can</a> image via Shutterstock.

All these years writing about financial markets, never had to explain one like this: Mortgage rates have broken a two-month rise, falling now because of a comedian, a skirt-chaser, and a professor failed as a politician. In Italy.

Election results on Monday: Mario Monti, darling of the one-Europers and intellectual austerity, drew a minuscule 9 percent. The remainder split evenly between the responsible Left led by Pier Bersani; wicked Silvio Berlusconi and his conservatives; and satirist Beppe Grillo's Five Star insurgency, anti-austerity, anti euro, and pro-lira.  more...

US economy still in intensive care

By Lou Barnes, Friday, February 22, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=100452337" target="_blank">Hospital patient</a> image via Shutterstock.

Interest rates, stocks and hopes for the economy all crested in the last week -- not rolled over, just flattened, without acceleration.

Applications for purchase mortgages fell, starts of new homes crept up 0.8 percent from December, and sales of existing homes rose 9.1 percent from the year-ago, dead-low base.  more...

Watch out for that light at the end of the tunnel

By Lou Barnes, Friday, February 15, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=87110158" target="_blank">Steam locomotive</a> image via Shutterstock.

Perhaps the U.S. and global economies are turning the long-expected corner, but that turn is still in forecasts, not current data.

The gold market suddenly believes the greatest economic danger is past, crashing 30 bucks today. Yet, the NFIB survey of small business is stumbling along in recession.  more...

Government's suit against S and P could help revive lending

By Lou Barnes, Friday, February 8, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=100039295" target="_blank">Courtroom</a> image via Shutterstock.

Long-term rates slid back a bit this week, the 10-year T-note holding 2 percent, mortgages near 3.75 percent, higher than 2012's second half, but nothing dramatic.

It was a thin week for data, but two reports were startling.  more...

Overseas forces driving puzzling rise in interest rates

By Lou Barnes, Friday, February 1, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=125216438" target="_blank">Japanese Yen</a> image via Shutterstock.

The sustained rise in long-term rates in January has stabilized for the moment, and its causes are becoming clear.

Mortgages have risen from 3.50 percent or below in the prior five months to roughly 3.75 percent, and the almighty 10-year T-note from a centerline near 1.75 percent to almost 2 percent.

The rise has been puzzling.  more...

Housing recovery lacks coal for the firebox

By Lou Barnes, Friday, January 25, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=89249179" target="_blank">Steam locomotive</a> image via Shutterstock.

Another thin week for economic data, but plenty going on and patterns are forming.

The dominant one is positive expectation for the economy: some is legitimate, although hope-based; some is illegitimate, salesmen mostly on Wall Street; and some is a form of habit, that sooner or later we'll enter an old-fashioned cyclical recovery.  more...

What will we do to get the economy going?

By Lou Barnes, Friday, January 18, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=114318994">Maze</a> image via Shutterstock.

This week brought lots of minor reports but nothing to change the outlook.

A 12 percent spike in December housing starts got more attention than it deserved -- a dead-of-winter month is not a good indicator -- and pushed interest rates up a hair. But inflation remains completely under control, core CPI up only 1.7 percent in the whole of 2012.  more...

What used to be 'tax and spend' is now just 'spend'

By Lou Barnes, Friday, January 11, 2013.
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?id=100040864" target="_blank">Party's over</a>  image via Shutterstock.

Markets barely moved this week, and there was no new data of note except the monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business tracking small-business-owner confidence.

NFIB economist Bill Dunkelberg called the current Small Business Optimism Index value of 88 "a recession-level reading." The index has had some better days recently, but is in the same basic place it has been since early 2008. The NFIB work is so sound, so long-running (same format since 1973) that those claiming a stronger national recovery under way have some explaining to do.  more...

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